Brexit bookings: the good, the predictable and the bleak

Two weeks after the Brexit vote, data released exclusively to EyeforTravel reveals inbound searches from the continent are up 31%, but the youth travel segment outlook is not so rosy

Data from eDreams ODIGEO over the past two weeks seem to indicate that Brexit is not stopping Brits from taking a European break. The European online travel agency, which analysed data from140 websites and 17 million customers, finds that although total UK travel fell 2% in the four days following the vote, overall bookings to the continent are up 9% compared to the same period last year.

Perhaps, this spike is being driven by Europeans who have decided to return home following the result. Or maybe by those who fall into the 48% of UK voters who want to show solidarity with Europe…but, then again, maybe not. Prominent leave campaigner and prime minister hopeful Michael Gove is reportedly taking his summer break in Italy with, err, prominent ‘remainer’ the soon-to-be former chancellor George Osborne. Seems the UK’s decision to split from Europe hasn’t damaged their friendship.

However, there is evidence from ODIGEO to suggest that currency swings are affecting where Brits choose to holiday. Trips to destinations where the pound remains relatively strong are up - to Norway by 40% and Hungary 16%. Brits are also travelling further afield, where the pound will go further, with holiday hotspots Thailand and Mexico up by 19% and 11% respectively.

Inbound searches to the UK from European countries are up 31%

The weak pound, as some commentators have predicted, could also have a positive impact on inbound travel with eDreams ODIGEO reporting a 31% increase in searches for flights to the UK from European countries between 18- 26June. Good news for UK hotels and holiday destinations if those searches are converted.

Remain gains and losses

In Scotland, which wants to remain in the EU, year-on-year bookings from Glasgow and Edinburgh were also up by 32% and 12% respectively. The trend perhaps given a boost by trips to Brussels by Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon and her entourage, which included MEP Alyn Smith who received a standing ovation for calling on the EU “not to let Scotland down”. 

However, proving that when the chips are down, predictions are impossible, Londoners, largely also in favour of ‘remain’, appear to have been shocked into staying put. In the capital, says ODIGEO, bookings fell by 9% in the three days following the vote.   

Overall, however, the outlook is positive, says a spokesperson from ODIGEO: “The 2% drop we have seen in bookings is not as severe as many anticipated and we’re seeing significant increases in specific destinations, which is proof that people’s appetite to travel to and from the UK has not declined – whatever the future holds.”

Still, it’s very early days!

Gloom for youth travel

For those in the UK providing outbound travel services for the youth segment, the picture is less rosy, according to a World Youth Student & Educational (WYSE) travel confederation post-Brexit survey. The UK is an important source market of youth and student travellers and over 60% of the 10.4 million trips made by those aged 25 or younger are to Europe. WYSE research indicates that holidays account for more than half of these trips, but study, work experience and language learning are also important travel segments. The survey finds that:  

  • 45% of these companies believe business prospects will be worse as a result of Brexit with decreases in business volume of between 12% and 19% expected over the next year.

Firms that offer au pair and work experience businesses, which require visa processing are forecasting the biggest downturn.

On the bright side, however, transport operators expect to see some upside from stricter visa regulations, which could lead to an increase the value of agent services. Though not great news for UK-based English as Foreign Language (EFL) schools, other destinations which offer such courses are looking increasingly attractive.

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