The challenge for Kayak in the hotel review category will be related to building up enough originally-posted reviews to be perceived as a credible resource.
Published: 18 Mar 2009
The challenge for Kayak in the hotel review category will be related to building up enough originally-posted reviews to be perceived as a credible resource.
Given the network effect and brand that TripAdvisor enjoys, this will be exceedingly difficult. Here’s why:
Based on data from similar sites and my own experiences, I expect .2% of the visitors to TravelPost.com write a hotel review. That’s only 1 out of 500 visitors. If you assume 20% of the 7.5m monthly visitors to Kayak go to the hotel category or TravelPost.com, that’s still only 100 reviews/day ( (1.5m * .2%) / 30). I think to really displace TripAdvisor, Kayak will need 2000 new reviews/day, which they can accomplish by increasing traffic or the review conversion rate. It’ll be hard for Kayak to increase traffic by 20x, but they should be able to increase traffic by 2x, and thus the review conversion rate needs to increase by 10x (2% of visitors write a review).
A great product experience - which I’m sure they’ll deliver - won’t get them this order of magnitude shift, nor will a strategy of aggregating review snippets from hundreds of sources. There are already a lot of sites that do a nice job at review aggregation, from UpTake to OpenList to Yahoo Travel and even TripAdvisor themselves. So here are some ideas to truly disrupt the hotel reviews space - mostly ideas that are too difficult, risky or expensive for TripAdvisor to attempt.
Recommendations for Kayak
Or, perhaps TravelPost is a head fake meant to pull TripAdvisor into a defensive posture to protect its core business instead of invest in metasearch. After all, the most famous quote from “The Art of War” is that “all warfare is based on deception.”
It’ll be fun to watch this fight from the sidelines and focus on my own battle (and associated tactics of deception.)
(Contributed by Sam Shank, who was the original founder and CEO of TravelPost from 2004-2007. Now he is associated with hotel deals and packages site DealBase.com).
Related links:
A review of TripAdvisor’s gimmicky “fees estimator”
“Our subscribers are the perfect audience for Fly.com”
A review of TripAdvisor’s gimmicky “fees estimator”
How traffic trends make sense for TripAdvisor’s search engine?
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